Prop Edge Ledger

Separates two things that get mixed up when someone cites a small-sample streak: whether the pitcher's strikeout rate is really elevated, and how many innings pitched (IP) the market is pricing in. Change the inputs on the left. The ledger recomputes the edge and, more usefully, the innings-pitched assumption the offered price implies.

Loaded example: Miguel Ullola, over 1.5 strikeouts at +125 (debut start)

Rate model: strikeouts (K) per inning pitched

Prior rateK per IP from the minor-league track record

Confidence in the prioras equivalent innings observed

MLB sample: strikeouts

MLB sample: innings pitched

Innings-pitched scenarios for this start

Weight

Short leash Base case Long leash

Weights are normalised to sum to 1. For a debut start, playing time is usually where the real uncertainty lives.

Market

Line (over)

Odds

Edge vs. offered price

—

model probability of the over minus the break-even probability the price implies (no vig removed)

Reading the price

Posterior rate (shrinkage-adjusted)—

Break-even probability from odds—

Blended model probability, over—

Expected value per unit staked—

Market-implied innings pitched—

Kelly stake (full)—

Strikeout distribution at base-case innings

Sensitivity to innings pitched

IP	Expected K	P(over)	Edge

Gold row = closest to the market-implied innings.